THE BRIEF
Investors keep asking about our unit economics and a 3-statement model. We have 14 months of Shopify, Stripe and bank data. Build the model and tell us what the numbers actually say.
Scenario: Founder of a regional meal-kit subscription raising a seed round
Package: Unit economics and 3-statement model · $85 · 48 hrs
Here's the model. Inputs are blue, every number is sourced, and the risks are on page one.
PAGE ONE: WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
- Each subscriber makes $15.80 a month after food, shipping and card fees.
- At your current 8% monthly churn, that's $197.50 per subscriber over their lifetime, against $85 to acquire them. 2.3x. Fine, not great.
- Payback on ad spend is 5.4 months.
THE RISKS
- Churn. 8% is your 14-month average, but the last 3 months were 9.5%. At 11%, lifetime value falls to $143.60 and LTV to CAC drops to 1.7x.
- Ad costs. CAC has risen from $62 to $85 in a year. Another $30 rise and payback passes 7 months.
- Food costs. A 10% rise in ingredients takes $1.60 off every box.
UNIT ECONOMICS (PER SUBSCRIBER, PER MONTH)
| Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $40.00 | Shopify, plan price |
| Food and packaging | ($16.00) | Supplier invoices, Jul to Sep |
| Shipping | ($7.00) | Carrier invoices, Jul to Sep |
| Card fees (3%) | ($1.20) | Stripe statements |
| Contribution | $15.80 |
- Line
- Price
- Amount
- $40.00
- Source
- Shopify, plan price
- Line
- Food and packaging
- Amount
- ($16.00)
- Source
- Supplier invoices, Jul to Sep
- Line
- Shipping
- Amount
- ($7.00)
- Source
- Carrier invoices, Jul to Sep
- Line
- Card fees (3%)
- Amount
- ($1.20)
- Source
- Stripe statements
- Line
- Contribution
- Amount
- $15.80
- Source
YEAR 1 INCOME STATEMENT
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,200,000 |
| Food, packaging, shipping | ($690,000) |
| Card fees | ($36,000) |
| Marketing | ($300,000) |
| Other operating costs | ($150,000) |
| EBITDA | $24,000 |
| Depreciation | ($10,000) |
| Interest | ($4,000) |
| Tax (25%) | ($2,500) |
| Net income | $7,500 |
- Line
- Revenue
- Amount
- $1,200,000
- Line
- Food, packaging, shipping
- Amount
- ($690,000)
- Line
- Card fees
- Amount
- ($36,000)
- Line
- Marketing
- Amount
- ($300,000)
- Line
- Other operating costs
- Amount
- ($150,000)
- Line
- EBITDA
- Amount
- $24,000
- Line
- Depreciation
- Amount
- ($10,000)
- Line
- Interest
- Amount
- ($4,000)
- Line
- Tax (25%)
- Amount
- ($2,500)
- Line
- Net income
- Amount
- $7,500
YEAR 1 CASH FLOW
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Net income | $7,500 |
| Add back depreciation | $10,000 |
| More inventory | ($30,000) |
| More payables | $12,000 |
| Cash from operations | ($500) |
| Kitchen equipment | ($40,000) |
| Loan drawn | $50,000 |
| Change in cash | $9,500 |
- Line
- Net income
- Amount
- $7,500
- Line
- Add back depreciation
- Amount
- $10,000
- Line
- More inventory
- Amount
- ($30,000)
- Line
- More payables
- Amount
- $12,000
- Line
- Cash from operations
- Amount
- ($500)
- Line
- Kitchen equipment
- Amount
- ($40,000)
- Line
- Loan drawn
- Amount
- $50,000
- Line
- Change in cash
- Amount
- $9,500
BALANCE SHEET, END OF YEAR 1
| Assets | Liabilities and equity | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $69,500 | Payables | $32,000 |
| Inventory | $70,000 | Loan | $80,000 |
| Equipment, net | $80,000 | Equity | $107,500 |
| Total | $219,500 | Total | $219,500 |
- Assets
- Cash
- $69,500
- Liabilities and equity
- Payables
- $32,000
- Assets
- Inventory
- $70,000
- Liabilities and equity
- Loan
- $80,000
- Assets
- Equipment, net
- $80,000
- Liabilities and equity
- Equity
- $107,500
- Assets
- Total
- $219,500
- Liabilities and equity
- Total
- $219,500
TIE-OUT CHECKS
- Assets minus liabilities and equity: $0.
- Opening cash $60,000 plus change of $9,500 equals balance sheet cash of $69,500: yes.
- Equity: opening $100,000 plus net income $7,500 equals $107,500: yes.
- Revenue ties to Stripe gross charges for the last 12 months within 0.4%.
Numbers tie out. — Dean
